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Crown Green Handicap

Ellen Leverton

Team: PensbyDivision: League 3Last updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

464

Current Handicap

15
Honours
Season:

48

Matches Played

10

Wins

38

Losses

21%

Win Rate

5.6

Avg Win Margin

8.4

Avg Loss Margin

5-18

Home Record

5-20

Away Record

100%

Handicap Confidence

Very Reliable
48 / 39 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 8/13/2018

A large recent sample: 48 matches in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window, comfortably past the 39-match benchmark for full confidence. The handicap is stable and only shifts as form changes.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: Decade Player3/10
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 48 matches

+15 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

16 May20 Jun1 Aug24 Apr30 Jun21 May6 Jul13 Aug-14916

Gives 15 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current15
Win Percentage(40%)
21%
score-0.58→contribution-0.23
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
5.6
score-0.40→contribution-0.10
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
8.4
score-0.07→contribution-0.01
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
20%
score-0.60→contribution-0.06
Opponent Strength(10%)
919
score-0.69→contribution-0.07
Weighted Score-0.473
Sample Size Confidence
100%(48/39 matches)
Rating764 → shrunk 764→ adjusted 464
Handicap
15

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 500). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 39, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

10W38L48 matches·20.8% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Pensby2016–2018League 348103820.8%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
8/13/2018Dave ThomasA9-21LOSS-12LeagueLeague 3
8/10/2018Tommy JamesA19-21LOSS-2LeagueLeague 3
8/6/2018Dennis HillisH17-21LOSS-4LeagueLeague 3
8/3/2018Sandra AstlesA6-21LOSS-15LeagueLeague 3
7/27/2018Brian ShawH21-11WIN+10LeagueLeague 3
7/20/2018Len YeatesH21-19WIN+2LeagueLeague 3
7/13/2018Lionel BattyA9-21LOSS-12LeagueLeague 3
7/6/2018Malcolm JohnsonA16-21LOSS-5LeagueLeague 3
7/2/2018Malcolm JohnsonH18-21LOSS-3LeagueLeague 3
6/11/2018Adrian CairnsA21-14WIN+7LeagueLeague 3
6/8/2018David CrawfordH15-21LOSS-6LeagueLeague 3
6/1/2018Robin ProbbingA7-21LOSS-14LeagueLeague 3
5/25/2018Robin ProbbingH9-21LOSS-12LeagueLeague 3
5/21/2018Tony RydingH19-21LOSS-2LeagueLeague 3
5/18/2018# Ray FarrellA18-21LOSS-3LeagueLeague 3
5/11/2018Andy EcclesH21-17WIN+4LeagueLeague 3
5/4/2018Andy EcclesA12-21LOSS-9LeagueLeague 3
4/27/2018Mal EvansH18-21LOSS-3LeagueLeague 3
7/7/2017Mo SavilleH8-21LOSS-13LeagueLeague 3
6/30/2017Alan SmithA8-21LOSS-13LeagueLeague 3
6/23/2017Colin MounseyA8-21LOSS-13LeagueLeague 3
6/9/2017John BrandonA6-21LOSS-15LeagueLeague 3
5/12/2017John SinkinsonH12-21LOSS-9LeagueLeague 3
5/5/2017William DowA5-21LOSS-16LeagueLeague 3
4/28/2017Paul HornerH17-21LOSS-4LeagueLeague 3
4/24/2017Andy WainwrightH8-21LOSS-13LeagueLeague 3
4/21/2017Steve MealorA20-21LOSS-1LeagueLeague 3
8/19/2016Ron LoweA21-13WIN+8LeagueLeague 3
8/12/2016Nigel BrownH12-21LOSS-9LeagueLeague 3
8/8/2016Jim TunleyA21-14WIN+7LeagueLeague 3
8/5/2016Jim TunleyH15-21LOSS-6LeagueLeague 3
8/1/2016Sue WynneA17-21LOSS-4LeagueLeague 3
7/22/2016Noreen BuntingH9-21LOSS-12LeagueLeague 3
7/15/2016Mo SavilleA15-21LOSS-6LeagueLeague 3
7/8/2016Matthew IrvingA21-15WIN+6LeagueLeague 3
7/4/2016Malcolm JohnsonH21-19WIN+2LeagueLeague 3
6/24/2016Matthew WilkinsonA20-21LOSS-1LeagueLeague 3
6/20/2016vs Lord NapierH12-21LOSS-9LeagueLeague 3
6/17/2016Colin SmithH10-21LOSS-11LeagueLeague 3
6/13/2016David CrawfordH20-21LOSS-1LeagueLeague 3
6/10/2016Paul RolfeA16-21LOSS-5LeagueLeague 3
6/3/2016Paul BonnerH21-14WIN+7LeagueLeague 3
5/27/2016Hazel MorganA7-21LOSS-14LeagueLeague 3
5/20/2016# Tony RatcliffeH5-21LOSS-16LeagueLeague 3
5/16/2016John SherlockA19-21LOSS-2LeagueLeague 3
5/13/2016Tony MccolganA7-21LOSS-14LeagueLeague 3
5/6/2016Steve OreillyH10-21LOSS-11LeagueLeague 3
4/22/2016Brenda CoppleA21-18WIN+3LeagueLeague 3
Cec Hannay Rose Bowl2 games · 0W
20182 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Preliminary RoundBrian FrancisNaval Club10-21LOSSWON
Round of 32 RoundPeter Jones *Tixall8-21LOSSLOST
Stott Cup3 games · 0W
20163 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Round of 32 RoundDave HulmstonAlbany19-21LOSSWON
Round of 16 RoundDave BayneNaval20-21LOSSWON
Semi Final RoundMargaret LewisParkfield12-21LOSSLOST
Doctor Dawson Victory Cup2 games · 0W
20182 rounds
RoundOpponentTeamScoreResultTeam
Preliminary RoundJohn J WilliamsNaval Club10-21LOSSWON
Round of 32 RoundOwen DoyleNew Brighton Quarry Vikings12-21LOSSLOST

Current Streak

4losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

2

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

11

Career worst losing streak

Last 520% win rate
LLLLW
Last 1030% win rate— steady
LLLLWWLLLW
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
Malcolm Johnson12333.3%7/6/2018
David Crawford0220%6/8/2018
Robin Probbing0220%6/1/2018
Andy Eccles11250%5/11/2018
Mo Saville0220%7/7/2017
Jim Tunley11250%8/8/2016
Dave Thomas0110%8/13/2018
Tommy James0110%8/10/2018
Dennis Hillis0110%8/6/2018
Sandra Astles0110%8/3/2018
Biggest Win
Brian Shaw (+10)7/27/2018
Heaviest Defeat
William Dow (-16)5/5/2017
Best Season
201629% · 21 matches
Worst Season
201822% · 18 matches
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
25% → 17%declining
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
87431 known · 17 unknown
vs Strong Opponents (rating ≥ 1000)
2-625% win rate
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
3-2013% win rate
League 320.8%
10W·38L·48 played

Debut

Apr 22, 2016

Latest

Aug 13, 2018

Seasons Active

3 (2.3 yr span)

Matches / Season

16.0 (48 total)

Seasons

201620172018